Coronavirus: There is Hope for an end - The Month of May

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With the advent of COVID-19, the world is under a strict lock down with no foreseeable escape. From a common Joe’s perspective, the world seems to be approaching a true dystopia. Contrary to this belief, with the help of statistics, the reign of the Coronavirus can be predicted to end soon.

In a previous statistical comparison, a correlation between Temperature and median age of a country was brought out tied to the number of incident cases:


More than 75% of the cases occur in regions from temperatures ranging from 5°C to 15 °C with a median age lying between 35 – 50 years. Countries like China, Italy and the US – in particular New York- are found within this region. This, in turn, elucidates the impression that Cases are likely to emerge in countries with these conditions in mind.

When we look at China’s cases in march from using the database published by https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/, it is clear that the number of cases are coming to a stagnant position.


The question which arises is why? Why is it not increasing exponentially? Why is the virus not going viral? The answer is simple: The mean temperature.


When we look at Wuhan China, as Wuhan’s temperature approaches the “Death zone” of 5°C to 15 °C, the number of cases sky rocket to a gargantuan proportion. However, as we enter the month of April, with temperature exceeding the “Death zone” the number of cases start leveling out.

Now assuming every country implements a lock down effectively, countries should start witnessing similar results as to Wuhan. As a county’s temperature exceeds 15 °C, the number of cases should start becoming constant. Henceforth, it can be reasonably concluded that when the countries with the top 10 cases have weather conditions of 15 °C or higher, the Coronavirus pandemic should be reaching its end.

In peroration, as all the major affected countries enter the month may, we should witness a global recovery from the Coronavirus. However, until then, we should sit tight and take every precaution to prevent the exponential spread of the virus.
-Advaith Ravishankar



References:

For the number of cases: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For temperature data: https://en.climate-data.org/


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